Bay Area continues to run counter to national housing market
Those of us that have lived in the Bay Area for years know that this region has always been a little different than the rest of the country. And most of us are glad that’s so! The state of the housing market is one more example of the Bay Area running counter to national norms.
Anyone who watches the network news or reads a national publication can’t help but come away feeling that every housing market in the country is suffering equally, thanks to a glut of inventory and a lack of qualified homebuyers. And while that’s true in some outlying areas of the Bay, it’s generally incorrect in most of our region.
To the contrary, we continue to see growing demand by very serious buyers looking to purchase homes. And while some are scouring the landscape for bargain basement distressed properties, many are seeking good, well-maintained homes at fair prices. And there continues to be a very strong demand for properties in the middle and upper ends of the market, including million-dollar homes.
The real problem we’re facing here in the Bay Area isn’t a lack of buyers; it’s a lack of sellers. Many homeowners who would like to sell their homes have been sitting on the sidelines, still believing that the market is in the depths of a recession. They still fear that they will have to take drastic price cuts in order to sell.
I’m afraid that the news hasn’t gotten out to them that things have changed for the better over the past year or two. Sellers no longer must sell their properties at fire-sale prices to get buyers attention. In fact, fairly priced homes that are well maintained and in good neighborhoods are not only being sold fairly quickly these days, but in some cases with multiple offers.
What makes the Bay Area different from the rest of the country, which is still battling a very sluggish housing market? It starts with our strong economy.
As a result of vibrant high-tech, biotech and social media industries from Silicon Valley up the Peninsula to San Francisco, the Bay Area is home to some of the best-paid knowledge workers in the country. These are well-educated engineers, programmers, financiers, and other highly educated professionals with money to invest and a desire to own a home. Add to that the supporting cast of back-office and headquarters jobs that have been created by thriving tech companies over the years and it’s easy to understand why demand for the Bay Area’s limited housing has never been stronger.
Local Market Monitor, a national firm that analyzes housing markets for the banking industry, recently issued a three-year forecast of the best and worst housing markets in the country out of the 100 largest markets that it covers. Ranking second in the nation – the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara housing market.
A story on the study in MarketWatch noted that home prices in Silicon Valley “are close to a bottom…and there’s already a good recovery underway in the job market, driven by high-tech manufacturing and technology services. Income levels are high, and population growth is slightly above average.”
During the housing boom (between 2002 and 2007), home prices rose 43% followed by a 21% drop, the report showed. “The San Jose recovery is clearly connected to the high-tech sector...and during the recession, 30,000 tech jobs were lost, but 16,000 have been regained since 2009. These are high-paying jobs that affect the housing market,” Local Market Monitor added.
While no one’s predicting an immediate return to the red-hot housing market of years ago, clearly things are looking up for much of the Bay Area.
For sellers who have been holding off listing their properties, I would strongly urge them to reconsider. Right now the math is in a reluctant seller’s favor. Interest rates remain near historic lows, the economy is gradually improving, and the Bay Area has more than its share of anxious buyers trying to purchase a home – but not enough homes to meet that demand.
The sum of these conditions mean that the balance between supply and demand is actually tipping in many homeowners’ favor, as hard as that is to believe after what we went through in recent years. This could very well be a surprisingly good time to sell a home, before everyone else catches on to the real story of the Bay Area housing market.
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